UWSA 3 to Step 2 CK
The newest UWorld form, and the one with the least data behind its correction.
UWSA 3 prints about 6.3 points low. UWSA 3 reads about 6.3 points low against the NBME scale, so those points are credited back. The honest caveat: that estimate rests on thinner data than the others, so it is deliberately shrunk toward zero rather than applied at full strength. Treat a UWSA 3 projection as slightly less certain than an NBME one.
UWSA 3 conversion table
Printed score to projected Step 2 CK range, for a form taken in the last month. The range is about a 68% band: roughly two in three students land inside it, which is why it is a range and not a single number. Take the exam further out and the band widens.
| UWSA 3 printed | Projected Step 2 CK | Midpoint | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200 | 213 to 235 | 224 | 6th |
| 205 | 217 to 239 | 228 | 8th |
| 210 | 221 to 243 | 232 | 12th |
| 215 | 225 to 247 | 236 | 18th |
| 220 | 229 to 251 | 240 | 24th |
| 225 | 233 to 255 | 244 | 32nd |
| 230 | 237 to 259 | 248 | 42nd |
| 235 | 241 to 263 | 252 | 52nd |
| 240 | 245 to 267 | 256 | 63rd |
| 245 | 249 to 271 | 260 | 74th |
| 250 | 253 to 275 | 264 | 83rd |
| 255 | 257 to 279 | 268 | 90th |
| 260 | 261 to 283 | 272 | 96th |
| 265 | 265 to 287 | 276 | 98th |
| 270 | 269 to 291 | 280 | 98th |
Rows shaded amber have a projected floor below the 218 pass line. Percentile is against LCME first-takers. Your printed score is never restated as a lower number: where a correction applies it lives inside the math, not on your report.
What UWSA 3 actually predicted, for 39 students
The table above is the model. This one is the record. These are 39 students who posted a UWSA 3 score and, later, the real Step 2 CK score that followed. Median UWSA 3 was 243; their median real score was 263, a jump of +18 points.
| UWSA 3 printed | Students | Median real Step 2 | Middle half landed |
|---|---|---|---|
| below 230 | 12 | 254 | 246 to 259 |
| 250 to 259 | 14 | 270 | 264 to 271 |
Self-reported scores posted to public forums, paired per student. People who do well post more often than people who do not, so treat these as an optimistic ceiling rather than a population average. The middle-half column is the interquartile range: a quarter of students in that band finished below it and a quarter above.
How the projection works
Three steps, and the constants are published rather than described. First the printed score is put on the common scale: UWSA 3 gains 6.3 points inside the math. Then it is shrunk toward the population mean of 250 with a slope of 0.79, which is what stops a single high form from projecting a fantasy. Then 9 points are added for the measured gain from practice form to real exam.
Fit on 258 real posted score reports and tested blind on 32 it had never seen: average miss 4.1 points, bias statistically zero. Reddit posters skew toward good news, so treat the range as honest rather than generous. Full methodology, including where the model stops being trustworthy.
Questions
- Does UWSA 3 run low?
- It reads about 6.3 points below the NBME scale, so the converter credits that back. The estimate comes from fewer observations than the other corrections, so it is shrunk toward zero on purpose rather than trusted at full strength.
- Why is the UWSA 3 correction less certain?
- Fewer students have posted a dated UWSA 3 alongside a real score. Less data means a noisier estimate, and applying a noisy correction at full strength would add error rather than remove it. Shrinking it is the conservative choice.
- How much does the date I took it matter?
- A lot, and more than most converters admit. Forms are weighted by recency with a roughly 21 day half-life, and the width of the projected range depends on how far out your exam is. A form from three months ago tells you much less than one from last week.