UWSA 2 to Step 2 CK
The form most often accused of running hot, and the accusation is roughly right.
UWSA 2 prints about 4.8 points hot. UWSA 2 prints about 4.8 points hot against the NBME scale, so the converter translates it down before projecting. This is the single most common reason a student is disappointed on exam day: they anchored on a UWSA 2 taken at face value. Your printed number is never changed on screen, only inside the math.
UWSA 2 conversion table
Printed score to projected Step 2 CK range, for a form taken in the last month. The range is about a 68% band: roughly two in three students land inside it, which is why it is a range and not a single number. Take the exam further out and the band widens.
| UWSA 2 printed | Projected Step 2 CK | Midpoint | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200 | 205 to 227 | 216 | 2nd |
| 205 | 209 to 231 | 220 | 4th |
| 210 | 213 to 235 | 224 | 6th |
| 215 | 217 to 239 | 228 | 8th |
| 220 | 221 to 243 | 232 | 12th |
| 225 | 224 to 246 | 235 | 16th |
| 230 | 228 to 250 | 239 | 22nd |
| 235 | 232 to 254 | 243 | 30th |
| 240 | 236 to 258 | 247 | 39th |
| 245 | 240 to 262 | 251 | 50th |
| 250 | 244 to 266 | 255 | 60th |
| 255 | 248 to 270 | 259 | 71st |
| 260 | 252 to 274 | 263 | 81st |
| 265 | 256 to 278 | 267 | 89th |
| 270 | 260 to 282 | 271 | 95th |
Rows shaded amber have a projected floor below the 218 pass line. Percentile is against LCME first-takers. Your printed score is never restated as a lower number: where a correction applies it lives inside the math, not on your report.
How the projection works
Three steps, and the constants are published rather than described. First the printed score is put on the common scale: UWSA 2 loses 4.8 points inside the math. Then it is shrunk toward the population mean of 250 with a slope of 0.79, which is what stops a single high form from projecting a fantasy. Then 9 points are added for the measured gain from practice form to real exam.
Fit on 258 real posted score reports and tested blind on 32 it had never seen: average miss 4.1 points, bias statistically zero. Reddit posters skew toward good news, so treat the range as honest rather than generous. Full methodology, including where the model stops being trustworthy.
Questions
- Does UWSA 2 inflate your score?
- Relative to the NBME scale, yes, by about 4.8 points on average. That is small enough that it is not a reason to distrust the form, and large enough that taking it at face value will systematically flatter you. The converter subtracts it inside the math.
- Should I still take UWSA 2?
- Yes. A form that needs a known, measured correction is more useful than one whose bias you cannot quantify. Take it, and let the conversion put it on the common scale.
- How much does the date I took it matter?
- A lot, and more than most converters admit. Forms are weighted by recency with a roughly 21 day half-life, and the width of the projected range depends on how far out your exam is. A form from three months ago tells you much less than one from last week.